Thursday, 1 April 2010
Dear Dr Tom,Say I 3-bet with A-K or A-Q, get called and completely miss the flop. It’s checked to me. Should I always c-bet?Thanks,Phill, Waterford
Dear Phill,Only if you have access to a time machine. It brings a salty tear to my eye to remember the days when a c-bet produced a grumble and a fold and that was the end of the pot. Nowadays, people expect you to c-bet when you miss so it has none of the representational value it had back in a more innocent age. If you always c-bet, then the range opponents put you on is exactly the same as your pre-flop 3-bet range and a big ace is going to feature in that at least as often as a big pair. Because opponent can put you on a range of hands, his response is going to be variable and he may already be planning ahead for the turn. All in all, it’s difficult to predict the sources of gained and lost equity when you start the ball rolling with a c-bet. Rather than telling you to “play the man” or some such content-free advice, let me suggest you simplify the problem by considering the relative probabilities of meeting a check-raise versus a fold. This is because these outcomes have markedly different EV for you. A call is likely to be much closer to EV neutral for your big ace – you could outdraw opponent, you could take it down with the next barrel, you could get nastily trapped – basically a lot of stuff could happen, and assuming you and opponent don’t have appalling leaks on the turn or river, it’s anyone’s guess who’ll get the money after you’re called.In contrast, the other outcomes have clear equity. If you’re check-raised (assuming you fold – check-raises that you call can be chucked in with the murky scenarios above) you lose your bet. If you’re folded to, you win the pot. A bit of arithmetic shows that if you c-bet the full pot you need opponent to fold more often than he check-raises, if you bet 2/3 pot you need him to fold at least 3/5 of the time and if you c-bet half the pot you need him to fold 1/3 of the time.Tom
The sixth annual edition of Grosvenor Casinos’ Goliath tournament series may have begun last week but players are being advised that there is still time to qualify for seats into its prestigious £120 buy-in main event.
Land-based and online gaming products innovator Scientific Games Corporation is set to run its second annual Shuffle Master Classic event next month offering one lucky poker player the chance to walk away with $100,000 in cash.
Land-based casino operator Estoril Sol has been awarded the first online gaming license for Portugal and has teamed up with platform provider Gaming1 to launch the new EstorilSolCasinos.pt domain.
With 5,000 expected entries, £250,000 guaranteed in prizes and only £120 to play, its no wonder Coventry is the place to be between July 30 and August 7.
Punta Cana Poker Classic 2016.
Intertops Poker and Juicy Stakes four.
Vamshi Vandanapu wins in Coventry.
Multitude of main event qualifiers.
Poker’s unassuming killer steps back into the limelight.
Meet one of UK poker's rising stars.
We talk to WSOP bracelet winner.
By Paul Oresteen.
Just keep smiling...
By Adam Slutsky
Pushing the envelope for a new poker generation.
Jeff KImber on fish.
So says Dara O'Kearney.
Dara O'Kearney looks at game thoery.
Dara O'K on bounty tournaments.
Rob Yong calls for competition.
A critical eye on the poker world.
Nick Wealthall on unconscious decision making.
Structure changes don't suit recreationals.
Features | Strategy | Interviews | Reviews | News | Profiles | Pages | British Poker Awards
© 2015 BluffEurope.com