WSOP 2011 - November Nine predictions [Editorial]
Monday, 4 July 2011
I remember shortly after the 2007 World Series of Poker when the rumours of the November Nine began swirling. A four-month delay on the final table? If you think people are making a fuss NOW over the hard stop rule you should have seen it then. We’d just crowned Jerry Yang World Champion which was shocking enough but to have this slapped on top of it…
As you know the November Nine idea has been and continues to be a big success ever since Peter Eastgate’s win over Ivan Demidov in 2008. Joe Cada and Jonathan Duhamel have since joined him in the post-November Nine champions’ club and this year we’ll induct a fourth member.
The Main Event of the 2011 World Series of Poker will be garnering intrigue for the size of the post-April 15 field as we spend over a week narrowing down thousands of players to a final table of nine. Even now, before players take their seats for the first of four opening flights, we can predict the players at the Main Event final table:
Seat 1 - Midstakes Online Grinder on a Heater (20.8m)
Seat 2 - Loud, Brash European Businessman/Recreational Player (14.5m)
Seat 3 - Solid Online Player You’ve Never Heard Of (21.3m)
Seat 4 - Established Online or Live Pro Everyone Pins Hope On (18.3m)
Seat 5 - General Joe Bloggs Everyman Who Got Chips (31.4m)
Seat 6 - Midstakes Online Grinder on a HUGE Heater (44.2m)
Seat 7 - Solid Online Player You’ve Never Heard Of (11.2m)
Seat 8 - Quiet, Demure US Businessman/Recreational Player (14.7m)
Seat 9 - Asian Player, Likely Named “Nguyen” (8.8m)
Yes, I have done science and according to my studies this is statistically the most likely arrangement of the 2011 WSOP November Nine including chip counts based on a reduced field of 5,812 and adjusting for colour ups throughout the nine-day event. (OK, there's a little bit of guess work involved!).
Midstakes Online Grinder on a Heater
Examples: Scott Montgomery (5th place, 2008), Joe Cada (1st place, 2010)
The most likely players to reach the Main Event final table are the midstakes grinders on a heater. Whether they play cash games or tournaments online, they were able to build a stack on Day 1c and keep climbing throughout Day 2a. On Days 3 and 4 they ran super hot and could use their chips to bully their way past the bubble. Now they’ve gone from the $22/180 or $2/$4 NL grind to potential millions.
Loud, Brash European Businessman/Recreational Player
Examples: Fillippo Candio (4th place, 2010)
We need a colourful character, I guess. This guy will have an almost-so-stereotypical-it’s-racist name for his country (this year I think Spain deserves a shout so his name will be Carlos Marsquereda Sanchez) and will jump, stomp and yell each time he wins a pot. He will have an obnoxious rail and will bust out anywhere from seventh to fourth.
Solid Online Player You’ve Never Heard Of
Examples: Joseph Cheong (3rd place, 2010), David Rheem (7th place, 2008)
This guy will already have it all - by 19 he was making hundreds of thousands in high stakes cash or MTTs online and the $1.1m he’s guaranteed to make at the November Nine doesn’t mean that much to him. He’s looking for the future sponsorships and the huge bonuses that come with first. Probably the best player here.
Established Online or Live Pro Everyone Pins Hope On
Examples: Phil Ivey (7th place, 2009), Michael Mizrachi (5th place, 2010)
We didn’t have it so much in 2008 - David Rheem probably fit here, too. However, when Phil Ivey made the 2009 November Nine and Michael Mizrachi followed it up last year it’s becoming traditional to have this figure at the final. For the past two years it’s been a recognisable name but online need a turn. I’m guessing this year it’ll be Chris Moorman. No pressure Chris.
General Joe Bloggs Everyman Who Got Chips
Examples: Dennis Phillips (3rd place, 2008), Darvin Moon (2nd place, 2009)
Super standard. Darvin Moon is the prime example of this and in 2003 one of them named Chris Moneymaker kicked this whole poker thing off. This year he’ll be a friendly, American middle-aged man with his own small business. He doesn’t play much poker and is a little bemused as to how he got here with all the chips.
Quiet, Demure US Businessman/Recreational Player
Examples: Steven Begleiter (6th place, 2009)
The most boring character there, he will finish somewhere like seventh and never be heard from again. He’s not bothered though because he made over a million dollars and is happy to never go near a poker game again.
Asian Player Named Nguyen