BLOG – WSOP betting and why you should never ever give up in a poker tournament

BLOG – WSOP betting and why you should never ever give up in a poker tournament

Wednesday, 26 May 2010

The hot topic for those of us not quite at the level of $10,000 tournaments and chasing bracelets is the betting odds for the World Series of Poker. Odds are if you’re interested in the outcome of one of the fifty-seven events then you’ve got a bit of gamble in you, so why not make money even if you’re not playing the tournament?

I’ve got some advice for you would-be ballers in the upcoming issue of Bluff Europe but, because you read my blog and I love you dearly, I’m going to give you some advance pointers. I’m getting my odds from where you can bet on bracelets, multiple bracelets and, of course, the main event. Bracelet bets are the in thing at the moment, with Phil Ivey reputedly putting $5,000,000 on the line against Howard Lederer and Justin Bonomo’s well-reported Panorama Towers bet.

The man himself, Mr. Ivey, is an overwhelming favourite with 31/20 odds of a bracelet win at the 2010 WSOP. Daniel Negreanu is a respectable 39/20 and Texas Dolly Doyle Brunson has 15/4 to catch his 11th. Speaking of 11 bracelets, Hellmuth is 13/5. These are just some of the bets going, check out your best value ones.

First, some tips – as a general rule, don’t bet on Hellmuth. No offence to Hellmuth and there is a reason he has 11 bracelets but by Hellmuth I mean players who play almost exclusively No-Limit Hold ‘em. The NL events at the WSOP are huge and such a crapshoot, especially the $1,500 ones with 60BB starting stacks. By live tournament terms they’re super turbo games and if you’ve ever played an online MTT with 3 minute blind levels and a 50BB stack to start you know how luck-based they are.

Phil Ivey and Daniel Negreanu are favourites not just because they’re Phil Ivey and Daniel Negreanu but because they excel at mixed games. Sit them in a Razz, Stud or Lowball game and they have an edge. These less popular poker variants have smaller fields too, in addition to being fixed limit which reduces the luck factor and increases the edge a world class player has over an average one.

As I type this blog I’m running my microstakes bankroll into the ground. I had about $60 and despite a few cashes and even a win in the 16 $1-$3 MTTs I was playing I’m down to $31.90 – the win was a $1.10 27-man. So I put it all on three $10.40 double or nothings, sent the remaining $0.70 to Barry Greenstein (I figure that’s like giving it to charity) and whatever happens happens.

Quick note – I made ninth in a $2.20 180-seat tournament and it is the reason I will never give up in an MTT again. With blinds at 800/1,600 and 25 remaining – 18 paid – I got it in against the chip leader for a 55,000 pot with KK against AQ. Ace in the door and I’m down to just 235; about one ante. Wouldn’t you know it but a short heater and some aggressive bubble play later and I’ve cashed with the last 18, not even as the short stack.

Never give up, Bluff Europe readers.

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