BLOG – Bluff Europe prediction for durrrr vs. "Jungleman12"

BLOG – Bluff Europe prediction for durrrr vs.

Wednesday, 11 August 2010

We’re all waiting with bated breath for Patrik Antonius to either give up or play the last 10,000 hands of his round of the durrrr challenge so that high stakes heads-up specialist Daniel “jungleman12” Cates can take on Tom Dwan for 50,000 hands – tenner says that this round won’t take over a year. In fact, I’d be surprised if it takes more than a month.

Both Dwan and Cates are accomplished online players with seriously sick multi-tabling skills. Dwan has been seen playing his four-table challenge against Antonius at $200/$400 PLO while taking on other players heads-up in Hold ‘em and also playing 2-7 Triple Draw on PokerStars. Once in 2004, "durrrr" was literally sitting at every $25/$50 or higher heads-up table available on the Internet. Every. Single. One. This became routine practise.

"Jungleman12" first appeared on the high stakes online radar last year when he, like every other nosebleed player worth his salt, took on Swedish mystery man "Isildur1" heads-up. He lost more than $500,000, which he said was half of his bankroll. Two months later he was back and taking on Dwan at $100/$200. This year he has made $2.5m in just seven months.

Both impressive resumes no doubt but who will have the advantage against the other when they sit down to play 50,000 hands? We’re speculating extremely here because not a lot is known about the forthcoming challenge. For example, while Dwan and Antonius played four tables, there is no reason that "jungleman12" will not want to play six. Also, the stakes will likely be $200/$400 NL but Cates and Dwan might sell off action to play $300/$600 or higher.

Personally, I have bet $100 on "jungleman12" at 3:2 – it’s telling that no one on the Two Plus Two forums would match the odds Dwan offered of 3:1.

Still, I think this match is as close to 50:50 as you can get; Cates is one of the best heads-up no-limit players in the world but Dwan is Tom Dwan.

So far, the two have played around 20,000 hands against each other at high stakes over the years and "jungleman12" is the big winner there but it’s not much of a sample size. I wouldn’t be surprised at either result but I think "jungleman12" has the edge.

For me, I can’t wait until Ivey takes the challenge because he will definitely play $500/$1,000 NL or PLO and that would just be sick. Take the routine swings suffered by Dwan and Antonius and then multiply them by three...

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