The Pro Perspective
Tuesday, 8 July 2014
Hand analysis with Ludovic Lacay
Team Winamax pro Ludovic 'Sir Cuts' Lacay gets down to the nitty gritty of a hand from the EPT San Remo High Roller event.
THE SCENE
The starting stack is 50,000 chips and I arrive at the table when the blinds are 100/200/25. Only 35 minutes remain until the break, and I don’t even play a single hand. Instead, I take the opportunity to observe the table dynamics.
In seat 3, a young Russian with an unpronounceable name open-raises constantly, roughly 70% of the time. To his left in seat 4 is Angel Guillen. Angel is a tight player but still capable of making aggressive plays, especially when short-handed. He three-bets the Russian frequently, the Russian calls every time, and they play it out without ever reaching a showdown.
In seat 5 is Steve O-Dwyer, winner of the EPT Monte Carlo.
I am in seat 6 next to an amateur Ukrainian player who is very loose passive. Seat 8 is occupied by a young millionaire who works in finance and regularly plays high stakes cash games in London.
THE ACTION
Upon returning from the break, the blinds go up to 150/300/25 and again I don’t play a single hand for another 25 minutes. At this time, the Russian player opens for 900 on my big blind. Angel Guillen three-bets to 2,500 and I decide to cold four-bet with QJo for 6,000 (with 50,000 effective stacks).
The Russian seems annoyed by my four-bet, but decides to call anyway after a minute of consideration. Based on his attitude and the fact that he calls, I am certain A-A is not his range. Angel Guillen folds and we are heads-up.
Flop: Jc 3c 3d (Pot = 15,000)
I decide to continue for 6,000 and he again calls.
Turn: 2c (Pot = 27,000)
I don’t have a club. We both check.
River: 9d
THE VERDICT
In hindsight, I think this is a pretty horrible spot pre-flop. It’s obvious that at some point I would make a move like this and the fact that I have a pretty tight table image doesn’t necessarily mean that the Russian player or Angel Guillen will respect my raise. This is therefore not the best time to four-bet.
As played, I am not a fan of checking on the flop. Of course, I’m not going to get three streets of value, but if the intention is to bet on the turn to extract value we should also bet the flop in order to balance his hand range and also for protection. Checking on this board also has the drawback of complicating my thinking if my opponent decides to bet the flop. Therefore a bet on the flop is required.
On the turn, there is not much choice but to check. I think that even check/fold is the best option here as check/call or betting does not offer much advantage. We hold a pretty weak hand and if we bet here we are turning our hand into a bluff which is a play that is too high variance for my liking.
On the river I elected to bet. I thought he would call less often than not, and he certainly has weaker hands than mine in his range.
I think that if we decide to check it is with the intention of check/folding and not check/calling. The way the hand was played, he is rarely going to bet on the river with worse than us. Indeed, there is the possibility of the classic float on the flop, check back the turn and then bet the river with a losing hand… however, it’s no longer 2007!
Consequently, I think that check/fold or bet/fold both have value, but I would rather check/fold.
I bet 9,000 and he called with Q-Q after taking a long time to make his decision.